저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 마이클 베리가 주택시장이 '삐걱거리기' 시작했다고 말했지만 2008년 같은 붕괴는 보지 않는다는 점을 짚고, 가격 하락은 헤드라인 가격보다 양보금·가격 인하 등 숨은 할인에서 먼저 나타난다고 설명한다. 베리의 발언: 2025년 9월 Substack 뉴스레터에서 주택시장이 조금 삐걱거리고 가격이 이미 떨어지고 있을 수 있다고 말했으나, 주택발 2차 금융위기는 보지 않는다고 했다. 영상은 이를 붕괴 예측이 아닌 개인적 감(hunch)으로 평가하며, 베리가 패니메이·프레디맥 주식을 보유하고 있다는 점도 언급한다. 금리 잠금 효과: 리얼터닷컴에 따르면 2025년 2분기 기존 모기지의 49.1%가 4% 미만 금리였다. 이 집주인들이 매물을 내놓지 않아 공급이 빠듯하고 가격을 지지한다. 베리는 금리가 더 오르면 이 잠금이 깨질 수 있다고 우려했다. 가상 사례(벤·카를라): 2021년 3.25%로 32만 달러 대출을 받은 부부가 현재 평균 7.32% 금리로 같은 규모 대출을 받아 이사하면 월 상환액이 약 1,393달러에서 약 2,198달러로 늘어 월 약 86달러, 연 약 9,700달러가 증가한다. 기존 상환액으로는 현재 금리에서 약 20만 700달러 대출만 가능해 집 규모가 약 37% 줄어든다. 원리금 기준이며 벤치마크로만 봐야 한다. 리스크 완화 요인: 리얼터닷컴은 금리가 6% 이상으로 유지되면 2027년 중반까지 6% 이상 대출 비중이 27~28%로 10년 이상 최고치가 될 수 있다고 전망하지만, 이직·이혼·출산 같은 개별 사건을 통해 천천히 진행될 것으로 본다. 내슈빌 데이터: 중개인 집계로 8월 매물 약 5,400채, 판매 약 820채, 계약 대기 약 900채라는 수치가 있었으나 공식 데이터가 아니다. 레드핀 기준 내슈빌은 최근 3개월 판매의 75.5%에서 양보금이 제공되어 조사 대상 28개 대도시 중 가장 높았다. 숨은 할인: 레드핀에 따르면 8월 전국 판매의 44.7%에서 양보금(수리비, 마감비용, 금리 바이다운)이 제공되어 2020년 이후 8월 기준 최고 비중이다. 판매의 약 15.8%는 가격 인하와 양보금이 동시에 이뤄졌다. 애틀랜타 72.8%, 샌호세 4.2%. 샌프란시스코는 여전히 판매자 우위, 뉴욕은 양보금 제공 판매자가 3% 미만이다. 예시로 40만 달러 매물에 3% 양보(1.2만 달러)를 주면 기록상 가격은 그대로지만 실제 구매 비용은 약 38.8만 달러다. 지수 한계: 케이스-실러 지수는 약 2개월 지연된 3개월 평균이라 과거 계약을 반영한다. 8월 기존주택 중위가격은 전년 대비 1.6% 상승했고 판매는 14개월 최저를 기록했다. 레드핀은 올봄 매도자가 매수자보다 47% 많아 매수자 우위로 기울었다고 본다. 출연자 전망: 베리 본인은 붕괴를 부정했고, 진행자는 붕괴보다는 '삐걱거림'으로 본다. 진행자는 순가격(양보 차감 후 실질가격) 기준 비교, 현재 금리 기준 예산 설정, 자기 우편번호 지역 데이터 확인, 실제 대출 가능액의 절반만 구매하는 원칙을 제시한다. 모든 내용은 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시한다.
다듬은 글
The man who made a fortune betting against the housing market in 2008, just said out loud that housing is starting to creek. Michael Bur, the big short guy, but in the very same breath, he said he doesn't see a repeat of 2008 coming out of housing. So, is it cracking or isn't it? Here's what most people miss.
If home prices really are slipping, you might not see it in the headlines because some of the biggest discounts in housing right now never show up in the price at all. Before we dig in, if you like clear number-based housing breakdowns, hit like and subscribe to Housing Signal. All right, let's get into it.
First, what he actually said, because the headlines stretch it. In midepptember, Bur told subscribers of his Substack newsletter, Cassandra Unchained, that the housing market is starting to creek a bit and that prices might already be falling. Then he added that he doesn't see a second great financial crisis coming from housing.
Notice the wording creek might. That's not a crash call. It's a hunch from someone with a famous track record. And one more thing worth knowing. He's also holding shares in Fanny May and Freddy Mack. So, he has his own bets running. He's an investor with a view, not a crystal ball. So, what's he worried about?
Something called the rate lock. In the second quarter of this year, 49.1% of all outstanding mortgages carried a rate below 4% according to realtor.com. Those homeowners aren't listing, which keeps supply tight and helps hold prices up. Bur's concern is that the lock might not hold if rates keep climbing.
He said higher rates could spook owners into all sorts of bizarre behaviors like selling before rates go up even more. Let me show you why those owners stay put with a hypothetical couple, Ben and Carla. In 2021, they took out a $320,000 loan at 3.25%. Their principal and interest payment is about $1,393 a month.
Now, say they sell and buy a similar house with the same size loan at today's average of 7.32%. That payment jumps to about $2,198. That's roughly $86 more every month, close to $9,700 a year for the same loan. Flip it around and their old payment would only support a loan of about $200,700 at today's rate.
That's about 37% less house. Quick caveat, this is principal and interest only. And Freddy Max survey rate assumes 20% down with strong credit. So treat it as a benchmark, not a quote. Here's what keeps this from turning into a flood, though. Realtor.com projects that if rates stay above 6%, mortgages at 6% or higher could make up between 27 and 28 1.5% of all loans by mid 2027.
That would be the highest share in more than a decade. But notice how it gets there. Slowly. One life event at a time. A job move, a divorce, a new baby. That's a slow Thor, not a stampede. It also means prices are holding partly because people are stuck, not because buyers are lining up. Those are two very different kinds of support, and the second one is a lot easier to knock over.
Now, the part of Bur's comments that grabbed me. A Nashville broker pointed out that about 5,400 homes were for sale in August against roughly 820 sold and 900 pending. Bur said he was shocked and called it potentially an all-time record for a city. That's one broker's count, not official data. So, I wouldn't build a plan on it.
But look at what Redfin found. In the 3 months ending in May, Nashville sellers gave concessions in 75.5% of home sales, the highest of the 28 big metros it tracked. And that brings us to the hidden discounts. Redfin says sellers across the country gave buyers some kind of concession, meaning money toward repairs, closing costs, or a rate buy down in 44.7% of August sales.
That's the highest August share since at least 2020. In nearly 16% of sales, 15.8, the seller did both. Cut the price and added a concession. Atlanta led the pack at 72.8%. San Jose sat at just 4.2. too. Here's why that matters for Bur's claim. Say a seller lists at $400,000 and agrees to a 3% credit toward closing costs.
That's $12,000. The recorded sale price usually stays at $400,000. The buyer's real cost is closer to $388,000. In the data, nothing moved, and the big price index, everyone quotes, Case Schiller, is a 3-month average published with about a 2-month delay. So, what it shows can reflect deals signed a couple of months earlier.
Think of it like checking today's weather by looking at last month's rain. Builders play a similar game with incentives, and we covered that in an earlier video, so I'll skip it here. What I want you to see is the scale of the trade. A $12,000 credit sounds big, but in Ben and Carla's math, the higher rate costs them about $86 a month.
$12,000 covers roughly 15 months of that gap. The credit is one check. The payment is 360 of them. So, is a crash coming? Here's the honest version. Bur himself says no. And the official numbers haven't flipped. In August, the median existing home price was still up 1.6% from a year earlier, even as sales hit a 14-month low.
Redfin says the market has tilted toward buyers with 47% more sellers than buyers this spring. But San Francisco is still a sellers market. And in New York, fewer than 3% of sellers offered concessions. So whatever is cracking isn't the whole country. It's mostly the Sunb Belt, and it's cracking quietly through credits and cuts before it shows up in a headline price.
One more detail from that same story that's actually useful. In midepptember, the Federal Housing Finance Agency lined up Fanny May's rules with Freddy Max so servicesers can now reach out to eligible Fannybacked borrowers and walked them through cancelling private mortgage insurance once their home has enough equity.
If you bought with less than 20% down, that could be real money. But it also shows why a softer market matters to owners. If prices slip, the equity cushion that lets you drop that insurance gets thinner. So, what do you do with this? None of this is financial advice, just how I'd think about it. First, shop by net price, not list price.
Ask your agent what sellers in your zip code are actually giving up, then subtract it. Second, run your budget at today's rate, not the rate you're hoping for. Third, watch your own zip code, not the national headline. The share of sales with concessions and how long homes sit tell you more than one big average.
And fourth, try a rule from Bur's own list of life advice posted in October. Buy half the house you can afford. Run it. If a lender will approve a $400,000 loan, the payment at 7.32% is about $2,748 a month. Half that loan is about $1,374. That gap is your cushion for taxes, insurance, repairs, and a rough year.
Here's the takeaway. Bur is saying housing is creaking, not collapsing. And the creeks show up first where headlines don't look. In closing credits, in paid repairs, in rate buyowns, in the gap between what a house is listed for and what it really costs. The price in the report is the sticker. Your real price is what's left after the concessions.
And nobody, Bur included, can promise where prices go from here. So tell me in the comments in your area are sellers cutting prices, handing out concessions, or still holding firm?
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