저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
인플레이션은 구매력을 갉아먹으므로 TIPS, 리츠, 원자재, 배당성장주, 인프라 등 역사적으로 인플레를 웃돈 자산에 분산투자하라는 주장. 근거로 JP모건 연구팀의 1900년 이후 데이터와 1970년대 스태그플레이션 사례를 제시. 장기적으로 고인플레 국면 진입을 전제함.
다듬은 글
You know, after four decades in finance and managing several inflationary periods, from the stagflation of the late 1970s to the current difficulties, I have come to realize that inflation is a silent wealth killer. It robs you of purchasing power while you sleep, and most investors are completely unprepared for this.
At JP Morgan Chase, with over $3.7 trillion in client assets under management, we analyzed which assets consistently outperform inflationary periods. Our research team has studied every inflation cycle since 1900, identifying clear patterns in which investments protect and grow wealth when everything else costs more.
After decades of low inflation, averaging 23% per year, many investors have become complacent, structuring portfolios for a disinflationary world with long-term bonds and growth stocks. But this world is ending. We are entering a prolonged period of higher inflation driven by massive government spending , supply chain disruptions, energy transition costs, and demographic changes.
The Federal Reserve printed more money in three years than in the previous three decades. This money ultimately manifests itself in higher prices. An inflation rate of 6% halve purchasing power every 12 years. For retirees on a fixed income, this is a disaster. For working families, it's like running on a treadmill that's constantly accelerating.
Certain assets not only protect against inflation, but also thrive during inflationary periods. These are time-tested asset classes that have outperformed inflation for over a century. Today, I'm sharing five asset classes that have consistently beaten inflation throughout history, based on solid data and systematic analysis from JP Morgan.
The first asset is TIPS , Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. The first asset that always beats inflation is TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. These Treasury bonds adjust both principal and interest payments based on changes in the consumer price index, providing mathematical certainty against inflation, guaranteed by the U.S.
government. By buying TIPS, you get the inflation rate plus a real return. If inflation is 4% and your tips have a 2% real return, you get a 6% total return. If inflation rises to 8% , you get 10% - the principal amount is adjusted upwards with inflation, and interest payments are calculated based on this adjusted amount.
During the stagflation of the 1970s, when inflation averaged over 7% per year, traditional bonds lost significant real value. TIPS would automatically adjust to maintain purchasing power and provide real returns. TIPS should make up 15-25 % of your portfolio during inflationary periods. We recommend five 10- year bonds with maturity to balance interest rate risk with inflation protection.
After years of negative real returns, we are now seeing positive real returns at 1-2%. You can lock in inflation protection plus a guaranteed real return above inflation. Important TIPS inflation adjustments are taxed as ordinary income annually, even if you don't receive the adjusted principal amount until maturity.
Keep your tips in tax-advantaged accounts like IAS where the tax impact does not impact the annual returns. Tips provide certainty in uncertain times. While other inflation hedges may outperform expectations over certain periods, tips mathematically guarantee that you will beat inflation, allowing you to sleep soundly knowing that a portion of your portfolio is fully protected from the erosion of purchasing power.
Asset two, real estate and real estate investment trust. Real estate consistently outperforms inflation because property values and rental income naturally adjust upward with inflation. Our research shows that residential and commercial real estate values have outpaced inflation by 2.3% annually over the past 100 years, accelerating during periods of high inflation.
Real estate inflation protection works through several channels. Real estate values adjust with rising construction costs. Rental income adjusts when landlords raise rents, and properties benefit from the leverage effect when inflation reduces the debt burden on fixed-rate mortgages. During the inflation of the 1970s, real estate was one of the few asset classes that protected against inflation and generated significant real returns.
The cost of residential real estate was growing twice as fast as the general rate of inflation. REITs ( real estate investment trusts) provide practical access to the benefits of real estate. These companies own income-generating real estate, by property type, and must distribute 90% of taxable income as dividends.
REIT dividends have grown 2% above the rate of inflation over 30 years, accelerating during periods of inflation. Residential REITs do well because housing is important and rents adjust quickly. Infrastructure REITs that own toll roads and utilities are particularly attractive because revenues are contractually linked to inflation indices.
Industrial REITs are benefiting from the growth of e-commerce and supply chain repurposing. Allocate 10% to REITs ( real estate investment trusts) during inflationary periods. Diversify across property types and regions. While REITs can be sensitive to changes in interest rates, short-term inflation protection and growing cash flows offset this over longer periods.
The third asset is investments focused on raw materials. Commodities, including energy products , precious metals, agricultural products, and industrial metals, are integral inflation hedges because they represent actual goods whose price increases create inflation. When oil prices rise, it leads to increased transportation and energy costs.
When agricultural prices rise, food inflation occurs . Our commodities team tracks over 50 markets, showing that broad commodity indices have outperformed inflation by 34% annually during inflationary periods. During the stagflation of 1970, commodity prices rose more than twice as fast as the overall inflation rate.
Gain exposure to commodities through ETFs and mutual funds that track broad indexes, such as the Invesco DB Commodity Index Fund. They provide diversified exposure without the complexities of direct ownership. Gold deserves special attention as the best inflation hedge, maintaining purchasing power for centuries.
Gold performs particularly well when real interest rates are negative and nominal rates are below the inflation rate. Currently, with inflation above 4% and rates around 5%, real rates are barely positive, making gold a smart move. Energy commodities provide a compelling hedge against inflation. As energy is an input to virtually every economic activity, agricultural commodities are becoming increasingly important due to climate change, population growth, and supply disruptions.
It is recommended to allocate 5-10% of the portfolio to commodities during inflationary periods, diversified across the energy , metallurgy and agriculture sectors. Maintain this allocation consistently, rather than measuring commodity cycles, as the benefits of inflation protection accumulate over time .
An asset for dividend-growing stocks. Dividend-growing stocks, stocks of companies with a strong price position that can increase dividends faster than inflation, provide excellent protection against inflation. While stocks can be volatile during inflationary periods, companies that can pass on higher costs to customers and increase profits offer better protection against inflation.
We identified key characteristics that make companies an effective hedge against inflation: dominant market positions, core products or services, low capital intensity, strong balance sheets, and a long track record of dividend growth. These companies can maintain dividend payments and increase them faster than inflation.
The mechanism lies in pricing power, the ability to raise prices faster than costs. Companies with strong brands, regulated utilities, essential services, or a dominant position can raise prices when production costs rise, maintaining profit margins and growing dividends even as inflation accelerates.
During the stagflation of the 1970s, S&P 500 companies that consistently increased dividends significantly outperformed both the broader markets and inflation, providing current income and capital gains while preserving purchasing power. Consumer staples like Proctor and Gamble, CocaCola, and Johnson and Johnson produce essential goods that consumers need regardless of conditions.
When production costs rise, they raise prices because demand is relatively inelastic, maintaining the rate of profit and increasing dividends. Utilities provide basic services with regulated pricing mechanisms, often allowing for automatic adjustment for inflation . Healthcare companies with patent-protected drugs and medical devices provide a natural hedge.
Dividend aristocrats. S&P 500 companies that have increased dividends for 25+ consecutive years are the gold standard, demonstrating the ability to increase dividends over multiple cycles. Allocate 25-30% of your holdings to dividend-growing stocks during inflationary periods through individual selection or dividend-focused ETFs.
Focus on quality ather than chasing the highest current profitability. The fifth asset is infrastructure and tangible assets. The fifth asset class that consistently outperforms inflation is infrastructure and tangible assets. Physical systems that support economic activity. This includes transportation infrastructure such as toll roads and airports, energy infrastructure such as pipelines and power plants, communications infrastructure such as cell towers and data centers, and social infrastructure such as hospitals and schools.
Infrastructure assets are an exceptional inflation hedge because they provide essential services that cannot be easily replaced, and revenues are often contractually linked to inflation indices. Many infrastructure assets have built-in escalation clauses that automatically adjust fees and charges based on inflation rates, providing direct protection against inflation.
At JP Morgan, we are a major proponent of infrastructure investing because these assets provide the predictable, inflation-protected cash flows that institutional investors need. Our infrastructure investment banking team has financed over $200 billion of infrastructure projects worldwide, providing deep understanding of how these assets perform over economic cycles.
Infrastructure protection against inflation works through several channels. First, many infrastructure assets have monopoly or quasi-monopoly characteristics, allowing them to increase prices along with inflation. The toll road has no direct competition for drivers getting to their destinations. Second , infrastructure revenues are often contractually linked to inflation through automatic escalation clauses.
Third, infrastructure assets typically have long-term contracts that provide . During inflationary periods, infrastructure assets often outperform traditional investments as investors have recognized the value of inflation-protected cash flows. The inflationary surge of the 1970s prompted significant investment in infrastructure as investors sought tangible assets with price positioning and real cash flows.
Transportation infrastructure is a great example of a hedge against inflation. Toll roads, airports, and ports may periodically adjust fees to reflect rising costs and inflation. These assets also benefit from growing demand as population and economic activity grow . Airport slot costs and toll revenues have historically grown faster than inflation due to capacity constraints and growing demand.
Energy infrastructure offers a particularly compelling hedge against inflation, as energy prices often determine overall inflation. Pipeline companies that transport oil and natural gas typically have long-term contracts with escalation clauses tied to inflation indices. Electricity generation and transmission assets benefit from rising energy prices and regulatory mechanisms that allow for cost recovery.
Digital infrastructure is becoming increasingly important as a category of tangible assets . Data centers, cell towers, and fiber optic networks support the growing digital economy and command premium valuations due to scarcity and high barriers to entry. These assets generate predictable cash flows from long-term leases, which often include escalation clauses for individual investors.
Infrastructure exposure is available through infrastructure-focused ETFs, master limited partnerships, MLPS, and infrastructure REITs. The XUS Global Infrastructure ETF and the EyesShares US REIT Core ETF provide broad exposure to infrastructure assets. MLPS offer direct ownership of energy infrastructure partnerships that distribute the majority of cash flow among investors.
We recommend allocating 10-15% of the portfolio to infrastructure and tangible assets during inflationary periods. This distribution provides significant protection against inflation while generating current income from assets that are difficult to replicate. The key is to diversify across infrastructure sectors and geographic regions, focusing on assets with strong competitive positions and pricing mechanisms linked to inflation.
Implementation, strategy and portfolio building. The key to successful inflation protection is diversification across multiple asset classes, rather than concentrating on any one approach. Each inflation hedging asset class has different characteristics, performance patterns, and risk factors. By combining them properly, you can create a portfolio that provides solid protection against inflation while managing volatility and liquidity needs.
At JP Morgan, we recommend an inflation protection portfolio for clients concerned about prolonged periods of inflation. This portfolio typically allocates 20% to TIPS for guaranteed inflation protection, 15% to REITs for real asset risk and income, 10% to commodities for a direct inflation hedge, 30% to dividend-yielding stocks for growth and income, and 15% to infrastructure for long-term inflation-protected cash flows.
The remaining 10% is held in cash and short-term instruments for liquidity. This distribution provides several levels of protection against inflation through various mechanisms. Tips provide mathematical certainty in overcoming inflation. REITs offer the risks of real assets with growing cash flows.
Goods directly benefit from rising prices, which creates inflation. Dividend-growing stocks provide the potential for real wealth accumulation through companies with pricing power. Infrastructure offers long-term, inflation-protected cash flows from underlying assets. The timing of implementation is important because inflation protection strategies work best when they are implemented before inflation takes hold.
Once inflationary expectations are built into market prices, many assets become more expensive. The optimal time to create protection against inflation is during periods of low inflation. When these assets trade at reasonable valuations, for practical implementation, investors should gradually place positions over a period of 61 years, rather than investing all at once.
This dollar cost averaging approach reduces time risk and allows you to take advantage of market volatility. Start by allocating basic tips as this provides immediate protection against inflation. Then gradually add REITs, dividend stocks, commodities, and infrastructure. ETF selection is crucial for cost- effective implementation.
For TIPS exposure, consider the CHP ETF with a low expense ratio of 0.05%. For REITs, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF, VNQ, provides broad exposure with an expense ratio of 0.12%. For commodities, the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, DBA, offers diversified exposure. For dividend stocks, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF, VIG , focuses on companies with growing dividends.
Tax efficiency considerations are critical to maximizing after-tax returns, keep tips on tax-advantaged accounts through phantom income taxation . REITs are also best held in an IRA or 401k due to the unfavorable tax treatment of dividends. Commodity ETFs can generate K1 tax forms, which makes tax reporting more difficult .
Dividend-growing stocks and taxable accounts benefit from qualified dividend taxation. Geographic diversification enhances inflation protection beyond a U.S.-centric distribution. International real estate through ETFs, such as the Vanguard Global XUS Real Estate ETF, VNQI, provides exposure to different currencies and inflation environments.
International dividend stocks through the Vanguard International Dividend Appreciation ETF, VIGI, offer global diversification. Exposure to emerging markets through infrastructure and commodities can provide additional inflation hedges, as emerging markets often face higher inflation rates. The discipline of rebalancing maintains the portfolio's inflation-protective characteristics over time.
As different asset classes perform better during different phases of the inflation cycle, the portfolio allocation deviates from the target weights. Quarterly rebalancing ensures that you profit from outperforming assets and add to underperforming ones , maintaining diversified protection against inflation while implementing a systematic “buy low, sell high” strategy.
Risk management considerations include understanding that inflation protection has its trade-offs. During deflationary periods, inflation-protected portfolios may underperform traditional allocations . TIPS can have negative returns if deflation occurs. Commodities can be volatile in the short term.
Maintaining a long-term perspective is key. Recognizing that inflation protection is insurance against the erosion of purchasing power, monitoring economic indicators helps optimize allocation adjustments. Keep an eye on the 5-year projected inflation rate. When it exceeds 3%, increase the allocation for inflation protection.
Monitor the real profitability of tips. When real yields turn negative, increase allocation to gold and hard assets. Track commodity inventory levels, energy prices, and wage growth as leading indicators of inflation for different life stages. The emphasis on inflation protection varies. Young investors may emphasize growth-oriented inflation hedges, such as dividend-paying stocks and infrastructure.
Middle- aged investors should balance growth and income through real estate investment trusts (REITs ) and diversified allocations. Pre-retirees should emphasize tips and stable sources of income. Retirees need maximum protection against inflation through tips, utilities, and conservative REITs. The most important aspect is maintaining consistency and discipline over several economic cycles.
Inflation protection works over time, but may not work effectively during certain periods when deflation fears dominate or growth-oriented assets are rising. Understanding your insurance against the silent erosion of wealth that inflation creates is key. These five asset classes: advice, real estate investment trusts (REITs ), commodities, dividend-growing stocks, and infrastructure have provided protection against inflation for over a century because they represent fundamental economic value that adjusts with rising prices.
By systematically allocating them and maintaining discipline, investors can protect and grow their wealth regardless of what inflation brings.
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